Economic assessment of future phosphorus availability: Impacts on agricultural and food markets at farm, national and global levels
With population and income growth, food demand is expected to increase in the future, as is the associated need for phosphate rock (PR) and phosphate-fertiliser (P). However, the supply of phosphate rock is limited to a few countries, including Morocco and China, while many countries, such as EU member states, are dependent on imports of P. In the event of a supply shortage of P, we expect a significant increase in fertiliser and agricultural and food commodity prices, leading to increased food insecurity. In addition, a continuation of the trend towards the formation of trade blocs could exacerbate these effects..
This Research Subject (RS) aims to develop a global economic modelling framework to assess the impacts of future P availability and potential alternative scenarios to address P scarcity on agri-food markets. Specifically, this RS will use results from other RSs to develop a set of scenarios including different options to increase P use efficiency through advances in plant breeding (RS 1), agronomic adaptations (RS 2) and P (re)cycling (RS 3). Using this information, the RS will assess the role of international trade in hindering or enhancing P availability and analyse the impacts on agri-food markets and food security.
Complementing the global analysis at the micro level, farm models will be used, e.g. to investigate the impact of farmers' access to fertiliser management information on their fertiliser use decisions and the associated P content in food, while household models will be used to quantify consumers' willingness to pay for food with higher P content..
